North Korea: Why I think it's Different This Time

While logging in to Youtube this front page video mentioning North Korea caught my eye so I decided to check it out:

 

Kim Jong-Un's New Strategy: Explained (youtube)
(For those who don't want to watch the entire video, what it basically says is all these talks and smiles are merely NK's bluff to earn time, and eventually they'll get to keep their nukes and things will go back to how it has always been - NK continuing their evil rule and others turning a blind eye.)

 

What I found was a rather typical example of someone trying too hard to look smart by playing a skeptical genius boasting "Ha! You can't fool me!". The funny thing about it was that despite trying to paint KJU as some evil mastermind, in fact it was grossly underestimating NK's intelligence by neglecting the simple fact that even they should know this kind of thin ice treading isn't sustainable.

 

The problem I see among western commenters regarding NK's recent "charm offensive" is that because of years and years of cartoonish propaganda portraying NK as some evil, crazy and cold-blooded maniac, they simply forget to apply common sense when it comes to reading NK's mind. Especially this:

 

WHY IS IT SO HARD TO SEE NK IS GENUINELY SCARED?

 

Fear - that's the keyword you have to remember if you ever want to understand NK's actions. I can bet my boots KJU never wanted to be KJU. Yes he may be able to enjoy all the luxury in the world, but luxury gets old pretty quick. What does not get old is living in constant fear that the entire world hates you and is out to kill you as brutally as possible. (The same can be said about NK's ruling elite, albeit to a lesser degree.) You may think KJU has some special kind of evil in him to murder his own brother and uncle, but in extreme dictatorships like NK there's just so much at stake to be in power that murders and massacres no longer becomes a second thought. It's like once you lie, you have to keep lying to hide that you lied and the lie grows bigger and bigger. Once you start abusing power, people start hating you, and you have to become even more brutal to prevent revenge, which in turn increases the hate even further. And anyone can see where this eventually leads to. Even North Koreans.

 

So OC NK is tired of being a bad boy. They will embrace the first opportunity with open arms that allows them to escape this never-ending downward spiral. There's plenty of signs the NK elite want change, not just for the people but for the sake of their own safety. KJU's assassinated brother went out of his father's favor because he embarrassed the regime by trying to sneak into Tokyo Disneyland. Why would a grown man risk his entire reputation to see an overblown toddler's playground? It was to show his son, a potential future leader of NK, that there was an alternative "happy" world NK just might have been. Young KJU was sent to Switzerland for similar reasons, to show him there's a different universe. It's no secret Kim Jong-il had a huge interest in China and Vietnam's reforms, and KJU had been consciously lenient on NK's budding private sector ever since he took power. It's obvious as day they know they need change.

 

So then, why is NK still killing and oppressing and making nukes? Why are they still the hermit kingdom, when opening up and befriending the world is the most reasonable thing to do if they want to reduce the crazy amount of political risks they are perennially facing? There are 3 main reasons that are hindering NK's reforms, which are:

 

1. The fear of popular unrest : Once the people start interacting with the world it'll be much easier to see how horrible NK is. Also, growing private sectors will undermine governmental power, and the wealthier people become the more politically conscious they will be.

 

2. The fear of military coup : This is directly related to reason #1. There looms a huge possibility NK's conservative elite will attempt to overthrow reforms out of fear of losing their privilege and political power.

 

3. South Korean and US right-wing demonizing NK as a political tool : No matter which side you are, conservatives are always a problem when it comes to diplomatic relationships. South Korean and US hawks has always had the bad habit of threatening NK's existence and utterly disregarding their interests.

 

All 3 of these are related to the safety of NK's ruling class. It shows the dilemma NK is facing: they need to open up in order to reduce their political risks, but doing so will also increase what they want to reduce. However recent developments have changed the situation considerably, so let's take a look at the current situation regarding each of these 3.

 

Reason no.1 still stands strong, but it can be mitigated by coordinated and gradual efforts by North and South Korea (ie. controlled investments through government, allow NK government to take credit for economic growth, joint border control, official international backup of KJU's leadership, etc.) KJI is still young, so he has a chance to separate himself from the sins of his predecessors and take up the "enlightened despot" trope to reduce the people's hatred toward him. This is very important for KJU because it provides him the insurance he dearly needs in case a fundamental power shift becomes inevitable, which is very possible in the near future.

For the critics who say KJU will do anything to stay in power, you have to realize NK's ruling class is facing a reality that staying in power forever is quickly becoming a vain fantasy. They are at a point that they have to seriously consider what might happen IF they have to step down. To put things in perspective, none of the former South Korean dictators ended up being killed or tortured after they gave up their power (Park Chung-hee was assassinated during his incumbency) because as far as dictators go, they were relatively tame. At the moment NK can't expect the same because they've been way too oppressive. But if they start reforms and show they care about the well-being of their people, the risks will become much lower: if they succeed they can ease the political tension considerably and even if a "revolution" happens, transition of power will be far more peaceful. Anyone will agree becoming a Gorbachev is a much better alternative to becoming a Gaddafi.

 

As for reason no.2, I think Trump is actually helping KJU's cause because his dangerously aggressive stance means refusing to change will be suicidal. Moreover, after going through a bloody purge of opposition and successfully developing ICBMs KJU's leadership seems stronger than ever. IMO the reason why Kim Jong-il's reforms failed was because he was too timid - he caved in too much to the conservative elite's pressure. However under the current domestic and international circumstances I doubt any member of the elite will dare oppose reforms. The biggest game changer should be nukes, which is an irony because it was developed to preserve the old system.

Contrary to popular belief, NK's nuclear missiles are actually a burden as much as it's a blessing. They rushed toward developing ICBMs out of desperation (especially after Trump's unexpected victory), but as a result now they've set themselves up too big a threat to be ignored. The reason NK survived so far was because they were just strong enough to pack a serious punch to their much more powerful neighbors if attacked, but not threatening enough to really bother otherwise. Now they have themselves in an unfamiliar position. Their nukes has already caused a huge tension with their economical lifeline China, and are giving US some serious motivation to do something about it. So in a way, they are inducing pressure for change rather than stagnation.

And finally, let's look at reason no.3. What was once Lee Myung-bak & Park Geun-hye, who had benefitted hugely from the tensions with NK, has now become Moon Jae-in. 'Nuff said.

 

So in short, the factors which have long hindered NK's motivations for change is probably weaker than ever. Which means if KJU ever want's to escape NK's everlasting downward spiral, there's no better time than now. You have a crazy US president who don't give a fuck against murdering millions of innocents just for his own glory, which can seriously keep NK's conservative elites in check. Then you have probably the most reasonable and understanding SK leader imaginable who's also really good at persuading US. Your domestic power now is greater than ever after successfully developing ICBMs and brutally eliminating your political enemies, and then you're entering your final years where you can still be considered a "fresh" ruler which means your time to separate yourself from the crimes of your predecessors is running out. If KJU is a rational person, which I believe he is, this is an opportunity you just can't miss. That's why I think his gestures for change this time is genuine - it aligns with his interests very well.

 

OC, even though if all these reasons are true, for NK this is still a huge - and dangerous - leap forward. So they'll need some serious persuading and backing up to go. I believe there's a common ground between NK and SK as a starting point to work things out: ensuring the political stability of NK. NK's political stability is a huge part of SK's interest as well because, who needs a nuclear armed anarchy right across their border? Also the sudden collapse of NK will certainly lead to all sorts of enormous social/economical headaches, not to mention a huge loss of lives. 

As much as I hate to say it, keeping the NK regime intact and encouraging/supporting their reforms is the best way to solve the NK problem because it's the least bloody, and also the least messy, option available. For the time being we should let KJU continue his rule, support his reforms by active investments (this will probably mean NK will become an economic periphery of SK but it'll still be an improvement for the NK people), and make KJU do what Park Chung-hee did to SK. We should even consider giving him military backing to stay in power (under the condition he shows commitment to reforms OC) - it may sound unethical to support dictators oppressing his people, but the feel of instability is the biggest factor that turns dictators into true monsters. After NK socially/economically matures enough a power shift will probably happen, but it'll be much more peaceful than if it happens now.

 

As a left-leaning liberal all these suggestions deeply contradict my values. But we have to face the reality that NK exists as it is. It would have been best if NK never happened at all, but since it's already here some casualties will be inevitable no matter what we do. What we have to do is minimize those casualties - and I believe the casualties coming from letting NK's regime continue for a while will still be far lower than making them collapse immaturely.

(updated 5/9/18)